How to protect the environment and small technology camera 塞纳里奥热酒

Small technology / ice environment how to protect the camera this to good friends online in February and March, although the beginning of spring, but different from the southern spring, winter is still not feeling go north. If you miss a month before the February and March snow shooting, Bashang grassland is still snow. However, before going to the really do? (pictures from the network) precautionary measures do not "cold" camera battery will remember last month the country "overlord" cold wave struck, I and several friends around, there are mobile phone because of the cold instant "frozen" phenomenon in crash. Want to say, take pictures at very low temperatures, they don’t have to wear more, keep warm, the camera is also cold ah! Before shooting personal warmth measures should be well then, if your camera is cold "cold", it will have what symptom? The most typical is the battery consumption too quickly or suddenly no electricity, at extremely low temperatures, battery tend to consume quickly, even suddenly no electricity condition. According to the physical characteristics of the battery, at temperatures below 0 DEG C, lithium batteries are usually at least 90% of the electricity; at -20 DEG C, rated power endurance capacity of 70%, and then decreased rapidly, until the "blackout". So, what do you do? Protective measures should also be made in addition to their own camera camera have to warm 1, ready to 2-3 block above the standby battery with battery temperature close to carry, not to avoid loss of power. Note that the use of in use for a long time and temperature change under the condition of large, standby battery selection to the original factory is preferred. After all, compared to the Deputy plant battery, the endurance and durability will be better than vice factory, and generally does not cause a problem of leakage and explosion of drum deformation. Because the battery is too cold, takes a long time to recover, so to change the battery, do not pay attention to battery cold to not work when the replacement is convenient continuous operation, if it is twenty or thirty degrees below zero in the shooting, can choose 15 to 20 minutes for a time, in order to restore the power supply capacity of the battery in a timely manner. 2, prepare camera warm set. 3, before entering the room and go out before the whole body and lens is isolated from the air, avoid moisture fog produced damage to the camera. For example in the camera before entering into sealed plastic bags, this inside, moisture will condense out of the bag. And out of the house also need from a period of time, let the camera gradually adapt to the outdoor temperature. Although many SLR has characteristics of anti spatter dust, but the water vapor in the air inside the fuselage condensation, these characteristics also appears a little failure. One or two this situation would not be affected much, but repeated condensation, very big damage to the camera. Wary of some small action 1, don’t breathe in front of the camera usually a lot of people have found the camera when some dirty habits, then in front of the camera and then wipe up, in fact it is in low temperature or normal temperature conditions, all don’t breathe in front of the camera. Because the optical mirror lens usually has special coating coating, Kazakhstan out of breath with acidic ingredients, it will!

小技大招 冰雪环境下如何保护相机   本文转自佳友在线   二三月,虽已立春,但是不同于南方的初春,北方仍是冬日未走的感觉。如果你错过了一月之前的雪景拍摄,二三月的坝上草原等仍是雪国之地。不过,去之前的准备是否真的都做到位了?   (图片来源于网络)   保暖措施没做好 相机电池会“感冒”   还记得上个月全国各地“霸王级”寒潮来袭,笔者以及身边好几个朋友,都出现了手机因为在外受冷瞬间“冻”死机的现象。想说的是,在极低的温度下拍照,别说自己要多穿点,做好保暖措施,相机同样也怕冷啊!   拍摄前个人保暖措施要做好   那么,如果你的相机受冷“感冒”了,它会有怎样的症状?最典型的就是电池消耗过快或突然没电了,在极度低温的环境下,电池往往会消耗的很快,甚至出现突然没电的情况。根据电池的物理特性,在0℃以下气温,锂电池通常还有至少90%的电量;在-20℃时,电量续航为额定电量的70%,之后便会迅速下降,直到完全“停电”。那么,你该怎么办呢?   相机的保护措施也要做好   除了自己 相机也要保暖   1、准备2-3块以上备用电池贴身携带,借助体温避免电池不失电。需要注意的是,在长时间使用和温差变化较大情况下使用时,备用电池选择以原厂为首选。毕竟相对于副厂电池,其续航能力与耐用性都会较副厂更好,并且一般不会发生漏液、爆鼓变形等问题。由于电池过冷时,需要较长时间恢复电,因此在换电池时,注意别等电池冷到不能工作时才更换既便于连续操作,如果是在零下二三十度拍摄,可择15到20分钟换一次,以便于电池及时恢复供电能力。   2、准备相机防寒保暖套。   3、进入屋子前和外出前将整个机身和镜头与空气隔绝,避免湿气雾气产生损坏相机。例如可以在进屋前将相机放入塑料袋密封好,这样进屋后,湿气便会凝结在袋子外面。反之出屋后也需要隔绝一段时间,让相机逐渐适应室外温度。   虽然目前众多单反都具备防尘防滴溅的特性,但对于空气中的水汽在机身内部凝结,这些特性也显得有点失效了。出现一两次这样的情况倒无大碍,但反复出现水汽凝结,则对相机损害非常大。   警惕一些小动作   1、别对着镜头哈气   平时不少人发现镜头有些脏的时候,习惯对着镜头哈气然后再擦拭,实际上无论是在低温环境还是正常温度情况下,都切记勿对着镜头哈气。因为镜头的光学镜面通常都具有特殊的镀膜涂层处理,哈出来的气息带有酸性的成份,这样做只会损害镜头。当然,如果你的镜头配有UV镜,那就没关系了。   2、小心静电   由于温度较低水汽凝结,空气通常较干燥,极容易引起静电。而对于储存卡来说,静电犹如杀手,对于一些小品牌储存卡,低温及静电会使其防护性能降低, 最常见的便是卡内的数据“消失”了,而这对于摄影者来说,那叫一个心痛。因此最好尽量减少拔插储存卡,即便要更换,建议将手套取下,同时最好用手触碰一下别的金属物体,以消除身上可能存在的静电。   采取以上简单的预防措施,你便可以放心在寒冷的户外轻松拍摄了。当然,别忘了自己脸 、耳朵、身体的保暖措施哦!相关的主题文章:

Yum China announced prospectus Chinese restaurants sharply reduced focus on Western food 小农民混世录

Yum China announced the prospectus: Chinese stores dropped in September 21st focused Western-style food field late, coming from Yum (NYSE:YUM) spin out a separate listing of Yum Chinese (future stock code: NYSE:YUMC) announced the prospectus, detailed disclosure of the future plan of Yum Chinese, also first mentioned development under both Oriental White and little sheep two Chinese brand. According to the prospectus, as of the end of last year, East Dawning only 15 stores in china. For the brand, yum China more bluntly "not be regarded as significant growth engine"; and another Chinese brand little sheep at home and abroad a total of 250 stores, of which more than 200 are franchised stores. Last year, yum made an annual income of US $6 billion 900 million, with a profit of about $1 billion before tax, depreciation and amortization, and net profit of $323 million. "Although consumer tastes are changing, but with the Chinese expanding middle class, eating out family annual income is growing exponentially, the company will continue to focus on the core consumer market, further Chinese mainland, newly opened more stores." Yum China says. Right and limited in September 2nd, yum announced Chunhua capital and the payment service agreement, after the two together to Yum China investment of $460 million, the investment will be split and yum yum and Chinese simultaneously, is expected to be completed in October 31st this year. According to the prospectus, to be listed to China yum yum shareholders issued 10 million ordinary shares, the highest price of $5.405 per share calculation, eventually raising $54 million 50 thousand for Yum Chinese. After the split of Chinese Yum exclusive ownership including KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell three brands in Chinese operation and re licensing rights, authorization for a period of 50 years (after 50 years, at the same time extend automatically) Chinese also Yum own both Oriental White and little sheep two brands. In addition, yum also made relevant agreements with Yum china. According to the prospectus disclosure, after the listing of Yum China, each month will not only make the net sales of 3% paid to Yum Brands, as the license fee; at the same time, yum Chinese must also have a certain fee for marketing, advertising and branding and product promotion. In addition, the prospectus also mentioned, as the exclusive authorized KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell three brands in China, yum yum gives a Chinese to the development of franchise rights, but also must meet certain requirements China Yum index. For example, the provisions of the agreement before December 31, 2022, yum China must be open enough to a certain number of Taco Bell stores, otherwise it will lose in China exclusive Taco Bell brand rights. It is reported that the first half of this year, yum Chinese overall revenue of $2 billion 891 million, operating profit of $296 million, an increase of 37%, mainly due to KFC’s comparable store sales growth of 7% to offset the decline of 12% pizza hut. Chinese food stores dropped compared to its Chinese Chinese Yum brand becomes a bit "fate", did not publish detailed plans for the development of both Oriental White and little sheep.

百胜中国公布招股书:中餐门店锐减 聚焦西餐领域9月21日晚,即将从百胜集团(NYSE:YUM)分拆出来独立上市的百胜中国(未来股票代码NYSE:YUMC)对外发布招股说明书,详细披露了百胜中国未来多项计划之余,也首次提到旗下东方既白和小肥羊两大中餐品牌的发展。据上述招股书显示,截至去年底,东方既白在华仅有15家门店。对于该品牌,百胜中国更直言“不被视为公司显著的增长引擎”;而另一中餐品牌小肥羊目前在国内外共有250家门店,其中超过200家是特许经营店。去年,百胜中国年收入达69亿美元,税息折旧及摊销前利润约10亿美元,净利润为3.23亿美元。“虽然消费者的口味在不断变化,但随着中国中产阶层的不断扩大,外出就餐家庭的年支出正在成倍增长,公司将继续关注这一核心消费市场,深入中国内地,新开更多门店。”百胜中国表示。权利与限定9月2日,百胜集团宣布与春华资本以及蚂蚁金服达成协议,后二者共同向百胜中国投资4.60亿美元,该项投资将与百胜集团和百胜中国的分拆同步进行,预计将于今年10月31日完成。根据上述招股书,即将上市的百胜中国将向百胜股东发行1000万股普通股,若以最高每股5.405美元价格计算,最终可为百胜中国集资5405万美元。而分拆后的百胜中国将独家拥有包括肯德基、必胜客和塔可钟三大品牌在中国运营和再许可的权利,授权期限为50年(之后自动延续50年),同时百胜中国还自己拥有东方既白和小肥羊两大品牌。另外,百胜集团也对百胜中国提出相关约定。据招股书披露,上市后的百胜中国,每个月不仅要把净销售额的3%上缴给百胜集团,以作为其许可费;同时,百胜中国还必须拿出一笔特定的费用来进行营销、广告和品牌以及产品促销。此外,招股书还提到,作为肯德基、必胜客和塔可钟三大品牌在中国的独家授权商,一方面百胜集团赋予了百胜中国继续发展特许经营的权利,但同时要求百胜中国必须达到某些特定的指标。例如,双方协议规定了在2022年12月31日之前,百胜中国必须要开够某个数量的塔可钟门店,否则将丧失在华独家经营塔可钟品牌的权利。据悉,今年上半年,百胜中国整体营收为28.91亿美元,营业利润为2.96亿美元,同比增长了37%,主要是由于肯德基的可比门店销售增长7%带动,抵消了必胜客下降12%的影响。 中餐门店锐减相比之下,百胜中国对旗下中餐品牌就显得有点“随缘”,并没有详细公布东方既白和小肥羊的发展计划。但21世纪经济报道记者发现,与肯德基和必胜客超过7200家门店相比,东方既白的门店仅剩15家。资料显示,东方既白是百胜中国事业部在2005年创立的中餐连锁品牌。当时,国内中式快餐市场方兴未艾,眼看着真功夫等中式快餐开始复制扩张,百胜中国毅然进军这个领域。但多年来,东方既白始终未能复制西式快餐的成功,最高峰时门店数仅约30家左右。对此,一位接近百胜集团人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,随着人们对健康的追求越来越高,百胜在中国发展到5000家门店的时候开始发现开店速度比之前要慢下来,于是急迫寻求新的增长点,而口味较为清淡的中式快餐一度被百胜视为一大重要战略方向。2012年,百胜以46亿元收购小肥羊,并令其从香港交易所退市,从此成为百胜集团旗下附属子公司。“成功收购小肥羊标志着百胜集团在中国市场的发展又迈出重要一步。我们热切期待将百胜集团在中国几个品牌:肯德基、必胜客、必胜宅急送、东方既白和小肥羊,继续做大做强,成为不同餐饮领域强而有力的领导者。”时任百胜中国事业部CEO的苏敬轼曾这样公开表示。随后的几年,百胜对小肥羊展开了一系列标准化改造,同时在品牌升级、架构调整、信息系统以及财务系统的升级上都投入了不少。但计划赶不上变化,随着海底捞等其他火锅品牌的兴起,小肥羊却仍然埋头专注标准化改造,无论是在菜品、口味还是服务上都缺乏创新,最终落后于其他对手。据悉,小肥羊最高峰时门店数量一度超过700家,但据百胜中国招股书披露,目前小肥羊在海内外共有250家门店,其中超过200为特许经营。而如今,百胜中国再次将目光聚焦在自己熟悉的西餐领域,并试图借助成熟品牌塔可钟再闯中国。据了解,目前在全球拥有6400家门店的墨西哥快餐品牌塔可钟在国内还没有落地,按照百胜中国的计划,国内首家塔可钟餐厅最快将在今年开业。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章:

Artificial intelligence lost is computer’s high skill equal to high intelligence 四川警察学院图书馆

Artificial intelligence lost: is computer’s high skill equal to high intelligence? Article source: Mr. AI WeChat public Artificial Intelligence (short for short) started in a very simple idea. When the computer was invented, many people soon realized that its ability is not limited to numerical calculation, but can be based on information encoding and do many other former only the brain to complete the task of programming instruction. This naturally leads to the question of whether the function of the human brain can be implemented in a computer. This type of research began to have different names, the last word "artificial intelligence" accepted by most people, although the interpretation has not been a unified (see "when you talk about artificial intelligence, are talking about what? (). At first, AI researchers thought they could achieve their goals in the near future. The pioneer Turing predicted in 1950 can make it difficult to distinguish the speech act and the "thinking machine" in fifty years, while the estimated founder Minsky and Simon et al in this area even more optimistic. In the history of the AI, there have been some aspiring research and development projects, such as the general problem solver of Newell and Simon "and" the Japanese government led fifth generation computer system ", but did not reach the expected goal. These failures make the reputation of AI suffer a huge negative impact, resulting in the flow of funds, staff run away, post reduction, known as "AI winter"". Alan Turing, the father of computer science, "brain death" by artificial intelligence? As a warning for the future, most researchers think that AI is the cause of the failure of predecessors too ambitious. With an authoritative textbooks for AI [3], at the end of the 80s "artificial intelligence accepted scientific method", which is from keen on a new theory based on the classical theory, from the expected to find a package of solutions to solve specific problems. This makes AI focus on solving practical problems that can only be solved by one person one by one, or by one by one to reproduce the cognitive function of human beings. Because various "expert systems" have reached or surpassed human levels in many fields, AI has finally got rid of the notoriety of "modern alchemy". Well known examples include defeated world chess champion of the "deep blue" system and the recent heady "deep learning" technique in image and speech recognition application. But this shift from the universal system to the proprietary system has a price. Because there are different content only people can solve the problem in different periods (such as once included four operations, ranking) is used to define the "artificial intelligence", in fact it as the frontier of computer application. Due to the continuous expansion in the forefront, the problems faced by different methods for different problems, so it is not possible to be included in a theory, therefore, will not tell AI and what is the difference between ordinary computer applications. Some people even said "artificial intelligence" refers to those who have not yet been computer to solve the problem, because once a problem is the computer solved, it is no longer the only people can solve the question 7

人工智能迷途:计算机的高技能等于高智能吗?   文章来源:赛先生微信公众号   人工智能(Artificial Intelligence,简称AI)开始于一个很简单的想法。当计算机被发明之后,不少人很快认识到它的能力远不限于数值计算,而是可以通过对信息编码和对指令编程完成很多其它以往只有人脑才能完成的任务。这自然就导出了是否人脑的功能都能在计算机中实现的问题。这类研究开始有不同的名称,最后“人工智能”这个词被大多数人接受了,尽管对其解释始终没有统一(见《当你谈论人工智能时,到底在谈论什么?》)。   开始,AI研究者们以为可以在不远的将来实现他们的目标。这个领域的先驱图灵在1950年预言在五十年内可以造出言语行为和人难以分辨的“思维机器”,而这个领域的奠基人明斯基和西蒙等人的估计甚至还要更乐观些。在AI历史上,曾经有过一些雄心勃勃的研发项目,如纽厄尔和西蒙的“通用问题求解器”和日本政府牵头的“第五代计算机系统”等,但都没有达到预期目的。这些失败让AI的名誉受到巨大的负面影响,导致经费断流、人员出走、岗位削减,史称“AI之冬”。 计算机科学之父图灵(Alan Turing)   人工智能“脑死亡”了?   痛定思痛,AI的大部分研究者觉得失败的原因是前辈们太好高骛远了。用一本权威AI教科书[3]的说法,在八十年代末“人工智能接受了科学方法”,其特征是从热衷于发明新理论转向基于经典理论,从期望发现一揽子解决方案转向解决具体问题。这使得AI着力于一个一个地解决各种以往只有人能解决的实际问题,或一项一项地再现人的认知功能。由于各种“专家系统”在很多领域达到甚至超过了人类的水平,AI终于摆脱了“现代炼金术”的恶名。广为人知的例子包括战胜了国际象棋世界冠军的“深蓝”系统和近年来风头正劲的“深度学习”技术在图像、语音识别等领域的应用等。   但这个从通用系统向专用系统的转向是有代价的。由于“只有人能解决的问题”在不同的时期有不同的内容(如曾经包括四则运算、排序等),以此定义“人工智能”实际上把它看成了计算机应用的前沿。由于这个前沿在不断扩展,所面对的问题千差万别,解法也因问题而异,所以不可能全被囊括于一个理论之中,因此也就说不清AI和普通计算机应用到底有什么区别。甚至有人说“人工智能”专指那些尚未被计算机解决的问题,因为一旦一个问题被计算机解决了,它也就不再是“只有人能解决的问题”了。以这种标准来界定一个研究领域自然会造成大量的思想混乱。   即使我们完全不在乎“人工智能”到底是什么意思,只是以“能抓耗子”来定义“好猫”,这种“分而治之”的战略仍有致命问题存在。人类的各种认知功能显然是有紧密的相互依存关系的,而人在各个领域的问题求解能力也不乏相通性和可转移性。在目前AI各子领域中,都有不少核心问题是依赖于其它子领域的。以自然语言理解为例,有什么证据说明语言理解能力是和推理、学习、记忆、感知、规划、决策等能力无关,而可以“就语言论语言”的?   对上面的诘问的常见答复是:智能之中的诸功能当然是互相依赖的,但由于它们太复杂,只能一个一个研究,将来再把它们集成一个完整的智能系统。或者说当具体问题解决多了,普适的办法也可能就找到了。   这种战略在很多领域的确是恰当的,但在AI研究中似乎并非如此。解决具体问题的最有效手段常常是通过深入分析该问题的特点得到的,因此未必能推广到其它问题。比如说“深蓝”的技术对计算机下围棋就不适用。类似地,当某种认知功能被孤立定义成一个计算过程时,其结果和该功能在人脑中的“原生态”常常已经是大不相同了。大略翻翻一本AI教科书(如 [3]) 就不难发现大量针对各种问题的解决方案。把它们都编成程序装到同一个计算机系统里并不难,难的是让它们协调工作。由于这些方案是基于不同的理论和预设的,它们完全没有协作的基础。这就解释了为什么整合各种AI功能的呼吁(如[1])收效甚微。   更重要的一点是,即使是这些打上“智能”标签的技术仍常常让我们觉得缺了些重要的东西。的确,它们在很多方面比人更强,因为它们速度更快、容量更大、功能更稳定,但是这本来就是计算机的长项,而它们仍然缺乏适应性、灵活性、创造性等直观上和智能密切相关的特征。即使是最新的机器学习算法也仍然受制于其中种种对应用领域的预设,因而和人的学习能力的普遍性不可同日而语。   明斯基曾在一次采访中对AI主流转向专用系统大表不满,斥之为“AI已经脑死亡了”。   通用人工智能的崛起   其实就像历史上类似情形中那样,总还是有些不改初衷的研究者,尽管他们只能在学术界的边缘沉默坚持。在2001年,他们中的一些人为了改变这种状况,开始把他们的研究成果编成一本书。最早草拟的书名是《Real AI》(真正的人工智能),在2003年全书完稿时定为《Artificial General Intelligence》(通用人工智能,简称AGI)。这本书在出版过程中又经历了些周折,故2007年才得以面世[2]。在此期间,在2006年于华盛顿特区召开了为期两天,大约50人参与的AGI研讨会([4]就是这次会议文集的引言)。在这些准备活动的基础上,AGI年会(  一个常常被当作AGI同义词的概念是“强人工智能”(Strong AI)。直观来说这是可以理解的,因为AGI的野心显然比目前的AI要强很多。但是按照这个词的发明人哲学家塞尔的说法,即使一个计算机系统的外部表现完全像人,那也只是个“弱人工智能”,而“强人工智能”必须真正拥有自我意识。这样一来一个AI系统是“强”还是“弱”就完全没有外部标准了,这是很多AGI研究者所不同意的。   与此相反,AI和AGI的差别是有明确外部标准的。如果要用一句话来概括,可以说AGI是把“智能”看作一个问题,而目前主流AI是将其看作一组问题。从AGI的观点看,“智能”当然是个很复杂的问题,必须一步一步地解决,但这里的“一步”不是“下围棋”、“识别照片中的事物”或“听懂中国话”,而是要根据一个智能理论来划分。这就像盖一栋房子应该从画图纸开始,然后据此一间间、一层层地建,而不是各人根据自己的想法分别去建客厅、书房、卧室、厨房、阁楼、卫生间等等,最后再设法把它们拼在一起。这听上去像常识,只是这样工程周期显然比只造一个房间会长很多,而且在全部完工之前不容易看出好坏。因此,在主流AI的工地上,绝大部分施工队都在忙着造各种房间,而不愿花功夫去捉摸那些成败难料的图纸。   尽管有“建造多功能通用系统”这个共识,目前AGI领域内对“智能到底是指什么”仍旧未达成一致意见,而在《当你谈论人工智能时,到底在谈论什么?》中介绍的几种观点在目前AGI研究中均不同程度地有所体现。既然对“做什么”都有不同看法,对“怎么做”的答复就更是百家争鸣了。尽管如此,已经有若干AGI项目离开了纸上谈兵的阶段,开始有具体系统可以被检验了,虽然离完成都还有很远的距离。   高技能≠高智能   在AGI中的“G”(General)不意味着能解决一切问题,而是指在系统设计时不限定其应用范围。“通用”自然是个程度问题,“通用”和“专用”也是相对而言的,但这个差别仍然是明显存在的,比如“深蓝”就完全不能算个通用系统。一个常见的误解是把一个通用系统看作一批专用系统的组合。实际上它们是两类非常不同的系统,不能相互替代。不仅AGI不能通过堆砌现有AI技术来实现,而且即使在AGI实现后也不会抹杀专用技术的价值。如[4]中所指出的,对一个可以明确刻画的应用问题而言,专用系统往往比通用系统更有效和更可靠。通用系统的应用价值是在那些问题和解法都难以事先确定的领域。在理论价值上,这二者的差别就更显著了。各种现存AI理论对于揭示智能的一般原理贡献甚微,而AGI理论则往往是从一般原理入手的。   在《人工智能:何为“智”?》中,我介绍了我对“智能”的工作定义是“在知识和资源相对不足的条件下的适应能力”。按照这个定义构建的系统可以被置于很多不同的环境中,而其智能使得它能够逐渐通过学习获得在该领域解决问题的能力。照这种观点看,“智能”不是“解决具体问题的能力”,而是“获得解决具体问题的能力的能力”,因此是一种通用的“元能力”(meta-ability)。   我对于“能力”和“元能力”的区别的最早认识来自于小时候读到的一个寓言故事。故事的框架很老套:两兄弟遇到一个白胡子老神仙,他们选择了不同的法宝,因此走上了不同的人生道路。这个故事的特别之处是其中的法宝是两双手套,一双是白色的,另一双是黄色的。带上黄手套就可以直接拥有各种技艺,而带上白手套就可以很快学会各种技艺。后面的情节大家都能猜到:选了黄手套的马上变身为成功人士,而选了白手套的仍需四处学徒。有一天两个法宝同时失效了,这时前成功人士立刻被打回原形,而那位前学徒工却仍身怀长技。这个故事的出处我已经找不到了(如果哪位读者知道请告诉我),两双手套的颜色也可能被我搞反了,但故事中的教益却对我影响深远,且不仅仅是“不要贪图急功近利”这么简单。   在我看来,“能力”可以被分解成“技能”和“智能”两个方面。一种“技能”指解决某类问题的专门化能力,而“智能”指那种获得和提高各种技能的能力。如果把系统的总技能看成时间的函数,那么智能就是这个函数的导数。系统在某一时刻的技能等于其“本能”(先天技能)部分和智能所贡献的部分的叠加。这两个部分的关系在人类和计算机系统中非常不同。因为人类的本能差别较小,同龄人的技能差别可以近似地反映智能差别,这就是“智商”定义的基础。相反,计算机系统的技能既可以来自本能,也可以来自智能。当一个计算机系统完全靠人编的程序解决问题,而不根据自己的经验对其行为进行任何调整时,它仍可能拥有很高的技能,但完全没有智能。而另一方面,一个高智能系统如果不依赖于预先编好的应用程序,在开始运行时可能并没有多高的技能。   根据上述分析,把人类智商测试直接用于人工智能是错误的,因为计算机系统在一个时刻的“智能值”和“技能值”之间没有相关性,而前者必须通过后者的变化来衡量。智能的具体衡量标准和方法仍是AGI领域中的一个热点课题,但无论如何,这种衡量不能以一套固定的考题来进行,因为那样一来,一定会有人去编制一些在这种考试中表现出色,但此外一无所能的系统。这绝不是正确的导向 ― 图灵测试已经因此而遭到“鼓励欺骗”的指责了。   “机器学习”还远远不够   把智能理解为学习能力远非新想法。心理学家如皮亚杰已经明确地指出智能是一种高级适应能力,图灵认为思维机器要通过学习实现其功能,而“机器学习”从一开始就是AI的一个子领域。在这种情况下,为什么上述想法不能在主流AI中发展呢?这是因为像“智能”一样,对“学习”这个概念也有许多种不同的理解,而我的理解和主流AI的很不一样。   如上所述,我认为“学习”是一个通用的元能力,而且是智能的必要条件,但在目前的AI研究中,“学习”一般是被看做是诸多认知能力之一,是起锦上添花作用的,因而AI系统不一定都有学习能力。即使在机器学习的研究中,“学习”也是一般被看做达到一个确定的输入输出关系的手段。这种学习系统的技能在“训练”阶段的确随时间增长,但达到某个水平后学习就停止了,而此后系统进入“工作”阶段。与此相反,在我的设计中,系统没有截然分开的“训练”阶段和“工作”阶段,学习是终生的,无处不在的,尽管在系统的“幼年期”和“成年期”学习和工作的比例有量的区别。最后,目前各种机器学习算法虽然有一定的通用性,但离AGI的要求还相差很远。   “错把技能当智能”是一个目前普遍存在的问题。对于只关心某个具体应用的人来说,到底一个计算机系统的某项功能是程序员设计好的还是系统自己学的,其间的差别大概并不重要,但如果关注点是系统的发展潜力和适用范围,这里的差别可就大了。   以我的研究为例,“知识相对不足”意味着系统必须不断学习新知识以应对新问题,而“资源相对不足”意味着系统必须不断调整策略以满足时间约束,而这种运行环境是不在现有AI研究(包括各种学习算法)的视野之内的。更大的差别体现在对阶段性结果的评价上。由于我的工作不是基于现有主流AI所接受的理论(主要是数理逻辑、概率统计、计算理论)之上的,而且尚未有具体应用成果,这种工作在他们看来就没什么价值。反过来,在我看来主流AI做的基本是“人工技能”,也不是我所感兴趣的。虽然其他AGI研究者和我的观点不完全一样,他们同样对主流AI的现有规范不满,而对AGI的研究目标和评价标准有更强的认同感。   目前介绍AI技术热点的报道很多,但其中的问题也不少,尤其是常常把这些技术做直观理解和外推,因而赋予它们很多它们本来不具有的性质。我在《赛先生》上写这个专栏的初衷是以我自己的研究为线索,逐步、系统、深入地分析AI、AGI和认知科学中的一些理论问题,澄清一些核心概念,并简单地介绍一个完整的智能理论。之所以牵扯到认知科学,是因为包括我在内的一些AGI研究者的目的不仅仅是要造思维机器,而且希望循此途径认清智能、认知、思维、心灵、意识等现象的本质和一般规律,这就不可避免地涉及到心理学、语言学、哲学等相关学科,而所谓“认知科学”正是指这些学科的交叉区域。我知道有很多读者的兴趣是在“人工智能是否会威胁人类”之类的话题上,但目前的这类讨论大量充斥着概念错误,所以在涉及这些话题之前,我们还是需要先把基本概念搞清楚。(作者:王培 美国天普大学计算机与信息科学系)   参考资料   [1] Ronald J. Brachman, “AAAI Presidential Address: (AA)AI ― more than the sum of its parts”, AI Magazine 27(4), 19-34, 2006   [2] Ben Goertzel and Cassio Pennachin (editors), Artificial General Intelligence, Springer, 2007   [3] Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig, Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, 3rd edition, Pearson, 2010   [4] Pei Wang and Ben Goertzel, “Introduction: Aspects of artificial general intelligence”, in Advance of Artificial General Intelligence, 1-16, IOS Press, 2007相关的主题文章:

NOKIA CEO hinted that it will return to the mobile phone market, but not eager for success 浙江农业商贸职业学院

NOKIA CEO hinted that it will return to the mobile phone market, but not impatient for success, Sina Technology News Beijing time on February 22nd morning news, in 2013, NOKIA mobile phone business for 7 billion 200 million U.S. dollars sold to Microsoft. Recently, NOKIA hinted that it will return to the mobile phone business in different ways. According to the agreement with Microsoft, from this year, NOKIA can re launch the NOKIA brand mobile phone. In the past, NOKIA has undergone many major transformations. NOKIA CEO Rajiv · Su (Rajeev Suri) on Sunday night in the Barcelona Mobile World Conference (NWC) media and analysts conference, said, considering the brand recognition of NOKIA and its mobile phone, return to the mobile phone market will be an opportunity". Last summer, Su told the German magazine that NOKIA was trying to find an authorized partner to design and manufacture mobile phones this year. However, he said Sunday that NOKIA is not eager to launch its own branded mobile phone. He said: "this may be launched in 2016, or may be 2017." Mr. Su believes that NOKIA will gain the opportunity to provide brand authorization to "appropriate partners". As for how NOKIA looks for the right partner and when we’re going to see NOKIA’s mobile phone again, Mr Su says, "there’s no timetable. We don’t need to be impatient. According to the specific situation, we will explore this issue with one or more appropriate partners." He also said: "we think this is a good business model, because the NOKIA brand has a good retention rate. Brand awareness is still high in all major markets. We also think that if you use NOKIA brand in a product, then this will be the opportunity to launch high-end products, including high-end in the price." His statement suggests that NOKIA’s future mobile phone products will be rivals for Apple’s iPhone and Android flagship machines. "For us, this business model does not include traditional manufacturing and channels, we just provide brand licensing, and partners need to pay to use our IP and brands," said Mr li. What we want to do is the design of the equipment, and if the partners do not meet our standards, then we need to take appropriate control measures." Is it possible for NOKIA to consider working with Foxconn to launch mobile phones together? Prior to this, Foxconn is authorized partner of NOKIA N1 tablet PC. The tablet launched in November 2014, using the Android system and NOKIA Z starter. On this issue, Su Li said that he is not yet sure. He also said that the right partners need the right "design capabilities, channels, and money" to go global". "We don’t have a timetable yet, and we don’t worry. It may come in 2016, or it may be later. But I think it’s a huge business opportunity for us, because the ultimately licensed business, like the software based business, will help profit." (Wei Jin)

诺基亚CEO暗示将回归手机市场 但不急于求成   新浪科技讯 北京时间2月22日早间消息,2013年,诺基亚以72亿美元的价格将手机业务出售给了微软。而近期诺基亚暗示,将通过不同方式回归手机业务。根据与微软之间的协议,从今年开始,诺基亚可以重新推出诺基亚品牌的手机。   在过往历史上,诺基亚有过多次大幅转型。诺基亚CEO拉吉夫·苏立(Rajeev Suri)周日晚在巴塞罗那移动世界大会(NWC)前的媒体和分析师会议上表示,考虑到诺基亚及其手机的品牌认知度,回归手机市场将是一个“机会”。   去年夏季,苏立对德国杂志表示,诺基亚正尝试寻找授权合作伙伴,于今年设计及制造手机。不过他周日表示,诺基亚目前不急于推出自主品牌的手机。他表示:“这可能会于2016年推出,也可能会于2017年。”   苏立认为,通过向“适当的合作伙伴”提供品牌授权,诺基亚将获得机会。关于诺基亚如何寻找合适的合作伙伴,以及我们将于何时重新看到诺基亚品牌的手机,苏立表示:“没有明确的时间表。我们不需要急于求成。根据具体情况,我们将与一家或多家适当的合作伙伴共同探索这一问题。”   他同时表示:“我们认为这是一个不错的商业模式,因为诺基亚品牌有着良好的留存率。在所有主要市场,品牌认知度仍然很高。我们也认为,如果在某一产品中采用诺基亚品牌,那么这将是推出高端产品的机会,包括在价格上的高端。”他的这一说法表明,诺基亚未来的手机产品将是苹果iPhone和Android旗舰机的对手。   苏立表示:“对我们而言,这一商业模式中不包括传统的制造和渠道,我们只是提供品牌授权,合作伙伴需要付费使用我们的IP和品牌。我们希望做的是设备的设计,而如果合作伙伴没有符合我们的标准,那么我们还需要采取适当的控制措施。”   诺基亚是否可能考虑与富士康合作,共同推出手机?此前,富士康是诺基亚N1平板电脑的授权合作伙伴。这款平板电脑于2014年11月推出,采用Android系统及诺基亚Z启动器。对于这一问题,苏立表示,他目前尚不确定。   他同时表示,合适的合作伙伴需要适当的“设计能力、渠道,以及资金,从而走向全球”。“我们尚未确定时间表,同时也并不着急。这可能会于2016年到来,也可能会更晚。但我认为,对我们来说这是一个巨大的商业机会,因为最终基于授权的业务与基于软件的业务类似,都会对盈利带来帮助。”(维金)相关的主题文章:

In the bid to build a number of domestic and foreign engineering client view Level2 ten market stalls &gt 太原理工大学学生处

In the bid to build a number of domestic and foreign engineering client view Level2 ten market stalls > > APP: mobile phone installed sina finance to see Hong Kong stocks unlimited free stock remind sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide Hong Kong level2 market through Sina Financial News Agency’s February 24th message, CCCC (01800.HK) announced recently won the bid a number of projects at home and abroad, including the tunnel Bureau’s bid Changchun (open) to the west of Bayan Railway Engineering spend 3 tenders, the contract amounted to 1 billion 3 million yuan, a total duration of 32 months. Zhenhua heavy industry bid for Huaneng Rudong 300 MW offshore wind farm 1# bid section South fan basic construction and installation and 2 booster station construction and installation work, the bid was about 620 million yuan. After the completion of the project, it will become the largest offshore wind farm in China, with an expected annual capacity of nearly 740 million kwh, with remarkable social and environmental benefits. Southwest Institute of the ecological zones around the city of Sichuan city of Chengdu province (Yuejin, Taiping District) project, project construction cost about 818 million yuan, the design fee is 15 million 992 thousand yuan. The total construction area of the project is about 500 thousand square meters. The main content of the project is the design work of the resettlement housing in the area of Yuejin and Taiping district. In addition, China port and Riga commercial port group signed the contract of Latvia Riga port coal terminal project. The total contract amount of the project is 100 million euros. A new coal terminal with a capacity of 12 million tons per year is planned to be built in the northern free trade zone of Riga City, Latvia. The project will be implemented in two phases. After the completion of the first phase of the project, the annual throughput capacity of the terminal is expected to reach 9 million tons, and the construction period is expected to be 24 months. China Luqiao and Congo land resource regulation and large engineering project in Xingang signed Noire business contract, the contract amount of $2 billion 300 million, the contract period is 54 months. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

中交建中标多项国内外工程 客户端 查看Level2十档行情>> 安装新浪财经APP:手机看港股 无限免费股价提醒 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   新浪财经讯 2月24日消息,中交建(01800.HK)公布,近期中标多项国内外工程,包括旗下隧道局中标长春(开安)至西巴彦花铁路3标段工程,合同额为10.03亿元,总工期为32个月。   振华重工中标华能如东300兆瓦海上风电场1#标段南区风机的基础施工安装及2座升压站的建造和安装工作,中标额约为6.2亿元。项目建成后,将成为国内最大的海上风场,预计年发电量近7.4亿千瓦时,社会效益和环保效益显著。   西南院中标四川省成都市环城生态区(跃进、太平片区)勘察设计项目,项目建安费约8.18亿元,设计费为1,599.2万元。项目总建筑面积约为50万平方米,主要工程内容为跃进、太平片区用地范围内的安置房工程设计工作。   此外,中国港湾与里加商业港集团签署拉脱维亚里加港煤炭码头项目合同。项目合同总额为1亿欧元,拟在拉脱维亚里加市北部自贸区新建一个年吞吐能力为1,200万吨的煤炭码头,分两期执行,一期工程建成后,码头预计年吞吐能力可达900万吨,工期预计为24个月。   中国路桥与刚果国土资源整治及大型工程部签署黑角新港项目商务合同,合同额为23亿美元,项目合同工期为54个月。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

2015年9月到2016年7月我国累计进口棉花89.07万吨 西安工程大学是几本

Initiative Futures: Zheng cotton fell sharply, not to chase empty Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same product for a long time, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Dynamic: cotton futures fell involved in the main producing areas of better weather and a stronger dollar, ICE12 month fell 0.65 cents to 67.79 cents a pound, pound. Zheng cotton plate opening night 14555 yuan, a slight concussion, trading sharply below four million, the minimum to 13910 yuan, after a slight rebound, closing 13980 yuan, down 615 yuan to close 1609 tons, 13400 yuan, down 545 yuan per ton. Today, the number of warehouse receipts 842, effective prediction of 997. Spot: Cotton fell involved in the main producing areas of the weather and the dollar, ICE12 month fell 0.65 cents to 67.79 cents a pound pounds. Yesterday, the State Reserve turnover 22 thousand and 300 tons, turnover rate 74.19%, average transaction price of 13511 yuan tons, textile enterprises auction rate rose. As of August 24th, cotton reserves totaled 1 million 938 thousand and 800 tons, a total turnover of 296 thousand and 300 tons of imported cotton, domestic cotton cumulative turnover of 1 million 642 thousand and 500 tons, turnover rate of 86.84%. According to customs statistics, in July, China’s imports of cotton 94 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 30.86%, a decrease of 10.04%, 1-7 months, China’s cumulative imports of cotton 525 thousand tons, a decrease of 513 thousand and 400 tons, a decrease of 49.44%, from September 2015 to July 2016, China’s cumulative imports of cotton 890 thousand and 700 tons. In July, imports of cotton yarn 163 thousand and 700 tons, down 24.1%, in 201516, the cumulative imports of cotton yarn 1 million 864 thousand and 400 tons, down 11.94%. Data show that since the policy of dumping and storage, cotton and cotton yarn imports in China are decreasing year by year, mainly domestic prices have more powerful forces to promote domestic consumption and inventory. The spot to continue Yindie, there is no market price, textile enterprises are shot replenishment change waiting for the new cotton market, the recent decline was less than the domestic yarn yarn, spreads in the narrow, later need to pay attention to whether to continue upside down will affect domestic consumption, textile enterprises should also pay close attention to inventory. In recent years, according to Shandong, Hebei and other places textile reaction yarn and cloth inquiry orders have increased signs, the market began to be active, need to focus on the procurement of raw materials and September auction situation. Operating strategy: operation on Zheng cotton today following the commodity panic fell below the million, concerned about its impact on the spot and auction, below the support of 13800 yuan, can buy below Qingcang, stop, Xinjiang cotton dynamic attention. Sina statement: Sina published this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean to agree with its views or to confirm its description. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly and take risks at their own expense. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

首创期货:郑棉大幅下挫 不宜追空 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   期货动态:隔夜美棉收跌受累于主产区天气好转和美元走强,ICE12月收跌0.65美分 磅, 报收67.79美分 磅。郑棉夜盘开盘14555元,小幅震荡走低,早盘大幅跳水跌破万四,最低至13910元,之后小幅回升,收盘13980元,跌615元 吨,1609收盘13400元,跌545元 吨。今日仓单数量842张,有效预报997张。   现货方面:隔夜美棉收跌受累于主产区天气好转和美元走强,ICE12月收跌0.65美分 磅, 报收67.79美分 磅。昨日国储棉成交2.23万吨,成交率74.19%,成交均价13511元 吨,纺企竞拍成交率上升。截至8月24日,储备棉累计出库成交193.88万吨,进口棉累计成交29.63万吨,国产棉累计成交164.25万吨,成交率86.84%。据海关统计,7月我国棉花进口量9.48万吨,环比增幅30.86%,同比减少10.04%,1-7月,我国累计进口棉花52.50万吨,同比减少51.34万吨,减幅49.44%,2015年9月到2016年7月我国累计进口棉花89.07万吨。7月棉纱进口量16.37万吨,同比下降24.1%,2015 16年度,累计进口棉纱186.44万吨,同比下降11.94%。 数据表明至抛储政策以来,我国棉花和棉纱进口同比都在减少,主要是国内价格更具优势力促进国内消费和去库存。现货继续阴跌,有价无市,纺企边拍补库变等待 新棉上市,国产纱近期跌幅小于外纱,价差在缩小,后期需关注倒挂是否持续会影响国内消费,纺企也应抓紧去库存。近几日据山东河北等地纺企反应纱和布的询价 订单有增加迹象,市场开始有所活跃,需关注对原料的采购和九月的竞拍情况。   操作策略:操作上郑棉今日跟随商品恐慌下滑跌破万四,关注其对现货和竞拍的影响,下方支撑13800元,可轻仓买入,跌破止损,关注疆棉动态。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

&quot 南京艺术学院尚美学院

Jiang Yukun: Euro $144 day double rallies clients view the latest market exchange sound in 2016 02 Tuesday 16 March, yesterday was the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the RMB against the US dollar night trading times over 6.4940 yuan, hit the biggest gain in 10 years. This is another big rise after the Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen heard the congressional hearing last Thursday. Last week, President Yellen four said: "the Fed is studying in the Federal Reserve, if the economic situation worsens, is negative interest rate helpful to the economy?". In 2010, the United States had considered negative interest rates, but argued that negative interest rates were not a good choice at the time. For the future, negative interest rates are not impossible, but whether it is applicable in the United States needs careful assessment. The author believes that this is the Federal Reserve Chairman of the Central Bank of China [micro-blog] President Kuroda Higashihiko in January 29th negative interest rates directly hit back. The euro dollar exchange rate fell on map in February 2016 12 on line 1.1376 rebound after. According to the theory of wave division: the peak of 1.1713 in August 25, 2015 fell to three in December 3, 2015 lows of 1.0521 wave down operation, should belong to a new wave of downward A wave. From 1.0521 lows in December 3, 2015 to 1.1376 in February 12th, running B waves. More importantly, the Fibonacci time window in August 25th last year high of 1.1713 and February 12th of this year high of 1.1376 to form 144 trading days. If the price does not break through the high point of the 1.1376 line, the C wave will probably go down. The voice of foreign exchange will also choose to sell Euro dollars at higher prices. Sina statement: Sina published this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean to agree with its views or to confirm its description. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly and take risks at their own expense.

蒋钰锟:欧元美元144天双顶 逢高做空 客户端 查看最新行情   外汇之声   2016年02月16日星期二,昨天是春节后的首个交易日,在岸人民币兑美元夜盘交易结束时报6.4940元,创10年最大涨幅。这是继上周四美联储主席耶伦在美国国会听证会后,又一大幅上涨的货币。   上周四耶伦主席表示:美联储在美联储在研究,如果经济形势恶化,负利率是否对经济有帮助。2010年的时候,美国曾考虑过负利率,但认为当时实施负利率并非一个好的选择。对于未来,负利率并非毫无可能,但是否在美国适用,需要仔细评估。笔者认为,这是美联储主席对日本央行[微博]行长黑田东彦在1月29日采用负利率的直接回击。   欧元 美元日线图,汇价在2016年2月12日创1.1376一线的反弹新高后下跌。按照波浪理论划分:2015年8月25日高点1.1713下跌到2015年12月3日低点1.0521运行的三波下跌,应该属于新一波下跌趋势的A浪。从2015年12月3日低点1.0521上涨到2月12日高点1.1376,运行B浪。   更重要的是,去年8月25日高点1.1713和今年2月12日高点1.1376形成144个交易日的斐波那契时间之窗。后市如果价格不再突破1.1376一线的高点,或许将展开C浪下跌。外汇之声也会择机逢高卖出欧元 美元。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章:

加息预期扰乱市场 黄金多头渺茫 客户端 查看最新行情   自8月以来 江西蓝天学院是几本

Han Yingyue: interest rate is expected to disturb the market, gold long dim, the client to see the latest market, since August, the focus of the market is focused on the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations change, the Fed interest rate hike is expected ups and downs, the market volatility amplification. At present, the market generally expected the Fed will not raise interest rates at the September meeting, before the Fed’s September interest rate meeting, the interest rate expectations will continue to fluctuate. Because the U.S. stocks fell sharply, resulting in greater volatility in global financial markets, based on this, the Fed meeting in September before and after the re release is less likely to raise interest rates signal, even if the market for machine counter, but its persistent bias, limited space. Han Yingyue believes that the Fed interest rate hike will become an important risk point in the second half of the financial market, and even become the main line of leading market sentiment. In September this month, the 21 US Federal Reserve will carry out interest rate meeting, the U.S. data previously disappointing, the market is expected to increase the probability of low interest rate in September. But the voices of senior officials in the US and Japan have shown great divergence and caused turmoil in the global financial markets. In particular, once the hawkish argument emerges, the demand for market security immediately reflects the demand for hedge assets such as gold, bonds, and so on. Changes in the market for the FOMC decision under, Han Yingyue believes that if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September, December or so before the four quarter of the market uncertainty will increase the volatility of funds at the end of the three season will spend smoothly; if the Fed rate hike in September, then the end of the three quarter financial volatility will increase substantially, does not exclude the possibility of domestic monetary policy short-term enhancement. But this also reduces the uncertainty of the latter, and the risk aversion in the fourth quarter will ease considerably. Tuesday (13 September) to the international spot gold fell slightly, although the Fed governor Brainard’s speech on Monday that the Fed rate hike is expected to cool down, gold decline eased, but the United States that continued to be strong, but made gold bearing long scruples, so the gold for two consecutive days to maintain low volatility, the highest price of gold on Tuesday hit 1330 line. But the two hit 1332 no breakthrough, formation blocked down, directly out of the shock down, the lowest test line 1314. Although the market has been in September the probability of interest rate hike down, but the possibility of interest rate hike has not been eliminated, so gold will not reduce the pressure in the short term. Tuesday crude oil, the international oil price shocks weaken, taking most of the gains overnight, U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 2% in October to $45.04 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures in November hit a low of $47.18 a barrel, although the overnight dollar weakness has helped the rise in oil prices, but the Bulls soon profits, because the fundamentals are still at the plight of IEA (International Department of energy) released monthly in the display, slowing demand for crude oil, OPEC supply is still increasing, excess supply will remain on the first half of 2017, also has weighed on oil prices. Technical analysis: gold from on line for five consecutive Yinxian, experienced in the positive stimulus of gold was above the 1350 mark, but Fed officials to raise interest rates in September to discuss the problem of problem, makes gold road rebound halted, the gold bull before the king lost, week 1320 mark repeatedly finally did not test.

韩颖玥:加息预期扰乱市场 黄金多头渺茫 客户端 查看最新行情   自8月以来,市场把焦点都集中在了美联储加息预期的变化上,美联储加息预期上下起伏,市场波动放大。目前来看,市场普遍预期美联储在9月会议上不会加息,在美联储9月议息会议之前,加息预期仍会上下起伏。因美股大幅下跌,对全球金融市场造成较大波动,基于这一点,美联储在9月会议前后再度释放加息信号的可能性较小,即便市场获机反抽,但其持续性偏差,空间有限。韩颖玥认为,美联储加息事件将成为下半年金融市场的重要风险点,甚至成为主导市场情绪的主线索。   本月于9月21日美联储将进行议息会议,此前发布的美国数据令人失望,市场预期9月加息概率较低。但近日美联储高官的言论显示分歧较大,并引起全球金融市场动荡。尤其是一旦有鹰派论调浮现,市场避险需求即刻反映,黄金、债券等避险资产需求也相应增加。对于美联储议息决议之下的市场变化,韩颖玥认为如果美联储9月不加息,那么12月之前或者四季度的市场不确定性将增加,三季末的资金波动将平稳度过;如果美联储9月加息,那么三季末的资金波动将大幅增加,不排除国内货币政策短期增强的可能。但是,这也降低了后期的不确定性,四季度的避险情绪将大幅缓解。   周二(9月13)国际现货黄金继续小幅下挫,虽然周一美联储理事布雷纳德的讲话令美联储加息预期降温,黄金跌势有所缓解,但美指持续走强,却又令得金价承压多头有所顾忌,因此黄金连续两日维持低位震荡,周二金价最高触及1330一线,但两次冲击1332没有突破,形成受阻回落,直接走出震荡下行,最低测试1314一线。尽管市场目前已将9月加息的几率下调,但加息的可能性并未消除,因此黄金短期内压力不会减少。原油方面,周二国际油价震荡走弱,回吐了隔夜大部分涨幅,美原油10月期货一度跌逾2%至45.04美元 桶,布伦特原油11月期货最低触及47.18美元 桶,虽然隔夜美元走弱曾帮助油价上涨,但多头很快获利了结,因基本面仍处困境,IEA(国际能源署)发布月报中显示,原油需求放缓,OPEC供给仍在增加,供应过剩状态将维持对2017年上半年,亦对油价有所打压。   技术面分析:   现货黄金从日线上看连续收取五根阴线,在经历非农利好刺激下金价一度攻上1350关口之上,但美联储官员对于9月加息问题讨论的问题,使得金价反弹之路戛然而止,黄金多头前景迷茫,周内1320关口试探多次终于没有支撑住,早间急跌1313低位,似乎看到了探底回升的希望,上方1330若不能有效站稳,反弹也许只是昙花一现,下方1300关口或将不保,主图上boll走平中,MA5,MA10死叉向下密集于中轨的1328一线阻力位,STO高位死叉进入超卖区,操作上韩颖玥建议保持高空为主,但不可盲目低位追空。   近日原油受各大消息面的影响继续承压,昨日亚欧盘时段油价一路走低,到下午四点IEA月报公布,月报称将其全球原油消费需求预期增速下调,对于当前脆弱的油市来讲,无疑雪上加霜,油价受消息面的影响继续扩大跌幅,直到晚间美盘时段有所反弹。虽然早间公布的最新API数据利多原油,令原油小幅增长,但依旧可以看出油价依旧承压继续震荡,在多重因素消息面的刺激下,技术面显得有些力不从心,从日线上来看,布林带小幅缩口运行,K线运行于布林带中上轨之间,短周期均线向下运行,行情指标MACD于0轴附近黏合运行,更多策略详情关注公众号韩颖玥,绿色动能即将消失殆尽,随机行情行情指标KDJ平行运行,从小时线来看BOLL行情行情指标有收口迹象,K线行情行情指标处于45.25布林带中下轨通道内运行,并且MACD行情行情指标快慢线有形成金叉向上延伸,综合来看,今日行情将会有所反弹,但是总体行情行情走势仍然指向空头,晚间EIA如期而至,日内操作韩颖玥建议高空为主,低位多单为辅。   现货黄金部分操作建议:   1,反弹1325-1328做空,止损3个点,目标1320-1318-1315   2,回踩1310-1312一线短多,止损4个点,看1318-1320一线   美原油部分操作建议:   1、45.8-46.0一线做空,止损0.3个点,目标45.0-44.8   2、44.6-44.7一线做多,止损0.4个点,目标45.3-45.5 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: