Guotai Junan International maintain Vinda neutral rating-running man20130526

Guotai Junan International: Vinda to maintain a neutral rating hot column capital flows thousands of thousands of stocks the latest Rating Rating diagnosis simulated trading client Sina client: the most profitable investors in Hong Kong stocks through Vinda level2 market mechanism cards 2015 performance worse than the market expected about 30%, mainly because of 1) in 2015 fourth quarter revenue growth is weak; 2) in 2015 fourth quarter gross margin was lower than expected; and 3)   high exchange loss. Weak consumer confidence in China has affected revenue growth. The decline in gross profit margins was mainly due to higher purchasing prices of wood pulp in the second quarter of 2015. In 2015, the loss of Vinda was 309 million Hong Kong dollars, a sharp rise compared with the loss of HK $18 million in 2014. Therefore, the company’s net profit per share in 2015 was HK $0.315, down 47% year-on-year. Management aims to achieve double-digit growth in comparable income in 2016, with operating interest rates at least to reach high single digits. SCA Asia business since the second quarter of 2016 is expected to be incorporated into Vinda, we expect the business to 2016-2018 contribution to the annual net profit of approximately HK $100 million. Assuming that the RMB is no longer depreciated and the company continues to increase the proportion of RMB loans, the exchange loss in 2016 is expected to decrease by more than 200 million Hong Kong dollars. After the acquisition of Sanjiang plant, Vinda will save more than 40 million Hong Kong dollars rent, but we only expect the acquisition completed by the end of 2016. Due to lower earnings growth expectations, higher exchange losses in 2016 and diluted effect of new shares issued, we lowered Vinda’s net profit per share by 33.2% and 24.4% for 2016-2017 years, respectively. The devaluation of the RMB affects the valuation of Vinda. We maintain Vinda’s investment rating as "neutral", but because of lower earnings forecasts, the target price dropped to 11.50 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to 19.9 times earnings in 2016 and 14.7 times earnings in 2017. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion 国泰君安国际:维持维达中性评级 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   维达2015年业绩差于市场预期约30%,主要是因为1) 2015年第4季收入增长疲弱;2) 2015年第4季毛利率较预期为低;及3) 汇兑亏损较高。中国消费信心疲弱影响了公司收入增长。毛利率下滑主要是因为2015年第2季木浆采购价格较高。2015年维达汇兑亏损为309百万港元,较2014年只有18百万港元的亏损大幅上升。因此,公司2015年每股净利为0.315港元,同比下跌47.0%。   管理层2016年目标争取可比收入增幅达双位数,经营溢利率最少达到高单位数。爱生雅亚洲区业务预期将自2016年第2季并入维达,我们预期该业务于2016-2018年每年贡献净利约1亿港元。假设人民币不再贬值及公司持续增加人民币贷款占比,2016年汇兑亏损预期将按年减少超过2亿港元。于收购三江厂房后,维达将节省超过40百万港元的租金,但我们仅预期该收购于2016年年底完成。由于较低的收入增长预期,2016年汇兑亏损较高及发行新股的摊薄效应,我们分别下调维达2016-2017年每股净利33.2%及24.4%。   人民币贬值影响了维达的估值。我们维持维达的投资评级为“中性”,但因较低的盈利预测,目标价下调至11.50港元,相当于19.9倍2016年市盈率及14.7倍2017年市盈率。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: